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Kā mazināt iedzīvotāju skaitu?

Raimonds Nipers –

  “Latvijā ir zemi nodokļi, zems nodokļu slogs”, pēdējos desmit gadus tādas frāzes esam regulāri dzirdējuši gan no bijušajiem valsts prezidentiem, no ministriem, arī no Saeimas deputātiem. Tomēr pēc pagājušajām Saeimas vēlēšanām viņi iemācījušies jau pareizāk formulēt šo frāzi – Latvijā kopējais nodokļu slogs attiecībā pret IKP ir viens no zemākajiem Eiropas Savienībā. Kāpēc ir zemākie nodokļu ieņēmumi, kāds tam pamats, viņi to nespēj ne izskaidrot, ne aprēķināt un vienkārši norāda uz lielo ēnu ekonomikas īpatsvaru, bet ēnu ekonomikas pamatcēloņus nevar noteikt.

Taču Latvijā ir viena no lielākām PVN likmēm pārtikai pasaulē, lielākie darbaspēka nodokļi, lielākie autotransporta nodokļi, un viena no lielākām elektroenerģijas cenām …..

Praktiski visās pasaules valstīs ienākumiem piemērojas progresīvas nodokļu likmes, izņemot dažas postpadomju valstis, tajā skaitā arī Latvijā. Pie mums pastāv plakanie jeb regresīvie nodokļi – it kā ir ieviesta progresivitāte, kas ir “simboliska” un ir ekonomiski nepamatota.

Progresīva nodokļa nodokļu sistēma ir sociāli taisnīga, novērš nevienlīdzību ienākumu pārdalē, kur mazo algu saņēmēji maksā mazāk un, savukārt, lielo ienākumu saņēmēji maksā vairāk. Lai veiktu kādas nodokļu izmaiņas, ir jāizvērtē esošais nodokļu slogs. Latvijā ir noteikti 15 nodokļi un 115 valsts un pašvaldības nodevas. Nodokļu likmju lielumu ir pētījis ASV ekonomists A.Lafērs, un viņš ir aprēķinājis likumsakarību starp nodokļu likmēm un ieņēmumiem valsts budžetā. Ir apstiprināta hipotēze, jo lielāks nodokļu slogs, jo mazāki nodokļu ieņēmi valsts budžetā, un otrādi. Pēc šīs hipotēzes var noteikt optimālo nodokļu slogu valstī. Šo ekonomikas teoriju māca jau vidusskolā.

Valdība vēl no 2014.gada nav noteikusi iedzīvotāju minimālo sociālo ienākuma līmeni, nav aprēķināts kopējais nodokļu slogs, kas ir svarīgs ekonomikas pamats visas tautsaimniecības attīstības prognozēšanai ilgtermiņā.

Finanšu ministrija neorientējas nodokļu veidošanas metodoloģijā, tāpēc arī šādi aprēķini netiek veikti. Var pieņemt ka Finanšu ministrijas darbiniekiem nav izpratnes par ekonomikas procesiem un to mijiedarbību.

Latvijā, darba algai 1000 eiro apmērā  piemērojas IIN likme 20%, sociālās iemaksas sastāda 35,49% un piemērojas mazs diferencētais neapliekamais minimumus, efektīvā nodokļu likme sastāda 42.6%,  salīdzinot ar Lielbritāniju, kur  nodokļu slogs šādai summai sastāda  vien 7.78%.  Latvijā darbaspēka nodokļi darba algai 1000 eiro  ir lielākie Eiropas savienībā.

Šobrīd Latvijā minimālā alga ir noteikta 430 eiro apmērā, kur indivīds bez apgādājamiem saņem atalgojumā uz rokas 366 eiro, valsts nodokļos iekasē 170 eiro, taču kopsummā ar darbaspēka nodokļiem sastāda 536 eiro. 2021.gadā valdība plāno noteikt minimālo algu 500 eiro apmērā, kur darba ņēmējs uz rokas saņems 428 eiro, valsts nodokļos iekasēs 190 eiro, un minimālās algas kopsumma ar darbaspēka nodokļiem sastādīs 618 eiro. Efektīvā nodokļa likme būs 30,7%, kas nav ekonomiski pamatota, un tā būs viena no lielākajām Eiropas Savienībā šādai summai. Salīdzinājumam Īrijā, samaksājot nodokļos 190 eiro, darba ņēmējs uz rokas saņem vairāk kā 1200 eiro. Ekonomiski pamatots nodokļu apmērs minimālajai algai pašreiz būtu 80 eiro, kur uz rokas darba ņēmējs varētu saņemt 456 eiro!

https://www.facebook.com/kinfieldcafe/videos/467553464006525/

Dažas partijas, lai paaugstinātu savus popularitātes reitingus, nodarbojas ar vairāksolīšanu minimālās algas noteikšanā. Tāda deputātu pašdarbība tūkstošiem iedzīvotāju novedīs galējā nabadzībā.

Ir ekonomiski pierādīts, ka strauja minimālās algas celšana noved pie ekonomikās neefektivitātes, palielinās bezdarbs un nabadzība. Minimālajai algai jābūt ekonomiski pamatotai, ar koeficientu piesaistītai pie valsts vidējas algas. Piemēram Minimālā alga Eiropā nav noteikta Dānijā, Šveicē, Zviedrijā, Norvēģijā, Austrijā, Itālijā un Somijā. Šajās valstīs ir vismazākais mazo algu saņēmēju īpatsvars.

No ekonomiskā viedokļa tieši “Minimālā alga” ir viens bremzējošajiem faktoriem valsts tautsaimniecības attīstībā un īpaši reģionos. Tā darbojas kā noteikta barjera kādas uzņēmējdarbības formas veikšanā. Reģionos mazie uzņēmumi pamatā veic sociālas funkcijas, sniedz noteiktus pakalpojumus, nodrošina sevi ar ienākumiem un nodarbina vietējos iedzīvotājus.

Valstī 2019.gadā bija tikai 23 721 uzņēmumi, kuru apgrozījums pārsniedza 145 tūkstošus eiro gadā, un šo uzņēmumu neto apgrozījums bija 61,68 miljardi eiro, kas sastādīja 95,1% no kopējo ekonomiski aktīvo uzņēmumu skaita (Firmas.lv dati). 3 miljardu eiro neto apgrozījumu veidoja 64 279 mazās uzņēmējsabiedrības, kurās bija nodarbināti 65% no visiem valstī uzņēmumos strādājošajiem. 2020.gada otrajā ceturksnī minimālo darba algu vai mazāk saņēma 118,3 tūkstoši darba ņēmēju.

Darba devējiem no 2021.gada par katru nodarbināto ar minimālo algu, izdevumi palielināsies par 1000 eiro gadā.

Valdība plāno nākošgad no mazo algu saņēmējiem budžetā papildus nodokļos iekasēt ap 120 miljoniem eiro. Nodokļu reformas plāns paredz daļēji šos uzņēmumus likvidēt.

Savukārt Valdība ir lēmusi samazināt nodokļu slogu lielo algu saņēmējiem, kas pārsniedz 62 800 eiro gadā, samazināt IIN likmi par 0,4% un solidaritātes nodokļa likmi, palielināt diferencēto neapliekamo minimumu līdz 1800 eiro.

Vidējā darba alga mediānā neto aprēķinā (faktiskā naudas summa uz rokas) 2020.gada otrajā ceturksnī bija 660 eiro. Ar nākošo gadu minimālā alga uz rokas sastādīs 428 eiro, un tā būs ekonomiski nepamatota ienākumu % attiecība. Palielinot tik strauji minimālo algu, palielināsies preču patēriņa cenas, būs lielāka inflācija,

samazināsies uzņēmumu skaits reģionos un palielināsies bezdarbs, palielināsies iedzīvotāju nevienlīdzība ienākumu sadalē, kas veicinās iedzīvotāju skaita mazināšanos, sāksies nākošais cikls – slimnīcu un skolu slēgšanā!

Minimālas algas celšanas pamata mērķis ir palielināt ienākumus ierēdņiem un ministriem, jo viņu atalgojums ar koeficientu  ir saistīts ar vidējo darba algas lielumu Tā 2022.gadā viņu atalgojuma palielināsies vidēji par 300 – 500 eiro mēnesī, bet ar nākošo gadu Ministru prezidenta alga sastādīs 5055 eiro, ministru algas palielināsies līdz 4798 eiro. 2018. gadā sabiedriskajā sektorā nodarbinātie saņēma atalgojumā 3,8 miljardus eiro un  jau 2019. gadā tie saņēma 4,2 miljardus eiro liecina CSP dati.

K.Kariņa valdības plānotais nodokļu reformas virziens ir vienāds ar iepriekšējās M.Kučinska valdības veidoto reformu, jo to veidoja tie paši Finanšu ministrijas darbinieki. Eiropas Komisijas atzinums par iepriekšējo nodokļu reformu bija negatīvs. Komisijas eksperti norādīja, ka pasākumi ienākumu nevienlīdzības mazināšanai bijuši maznozīmīgi un tieši otrādi palielināja ēnu ekonomiku un iedzīvotāju nevienlīdzību ienākumu pārdalē. Arī Fiskālās disciplīnas padome un Satversmes tiesa norādīja, ka nodokļu reforma nav nesusi būtiskus rezultātus ienākumu plaisas mazināšanā.

2017.gada 1.junijā Latvijas Tirdzniecības un rūpniecības kameras Latgales padome saistībā ar 2018.gada nodokļu reformu, nosūtīja valdībai vēstuli, kurā uzņēmēji norādīja, ka: „Ministru Kabineta pieņemtās nodokļu politikas pamatnostādnes neatbilst valsts ekonomikas reālajai situācijai, un tās nesasniegs abus galvenos noteiktos mērķus – sociālās nevienlīdzības mazināšanu un uzņēmējdarbības attīstību. ”Latvijas Tirdzniecības un rūpniecības kameras  Latgales padome bija aprēķinājusi, ka,

palielinot minimālo algu līdz 430 eiro,  valsts reģionos tiks likvidēti ap 20 000 mazo un vidējo uzņēmumu, bez darba atstājot ap 60 000 cilvēku.

Trīs gadu laikā pēc bijušās Finanšu ministres Danas Reiznieces Ozolas (ZZS) ieviestās nodokļu reformas reģionos ir būtiski samazinājies mazajos uzņēmumos nodarbināto skaits, izzuda pat dažas uzņēmējdarbības formas.Viena no tām ir, tā saucamie, “autoveikali”, kas fiziski veica sociālo uzņēmējdarbību, piegādājot laukos pārtikas preces pensionāriem.  Ir pieņēmums ka Latgalē šajā laika periodā iedzīvotāju skaits ir  samazinājās par 40 tūkstošiem.

Pēc Latvijas Republikas neatkarības atjaunošanas 1990.gadā Latgalē bija 425 tūkstoši iedzīvotāju. Demogrāfs Ilmārs Mežs paredz, ka: “Latgales reģionā 2030.gadā prognozējams viskrasākais iedzīvotāju skaita kritums. Ja 2015.gadā šajā reģionā bija 282 000 iedzīvotāju, tad 2030.gada prognoze liecina, ka šajā reģionā būs 204 000 iedzīvotāju.”

Ar regulāro nodokļu palielināšanu valdība veido nelabvēlīgu dzīves vidi reģionos. Jau tagad 40% Latgales iedzīvotāju dzīvo zem nabadzības robežas – liecina CSP dati. Nodokļi tiek palielināti proporcionāli izbraukušo iedzīvotāju skaitam. Varētu izveidot noteiktu algoritma programmu “Nodokļu slogs – Iedzīvotāju skaits”, ar kuru var aprēķināt kā palielinot nodokļu slogu var mazināt iedzīvotāju skaitu. Pamatojoties uz K.Kariņa valdības piedāvāto nodokļu reformu, var paredzēt, ka 2030.gadā Latgalē paliks vien 120 tūkstoši iedzīvotāju.

Vai Latvijā mazajiem uzņēmumiem un mazo algu saņēmējiem ir uzkrauts paverdzinošs nodokļu slogs?

Valdība izdomā visdažādākos argumentus, lai kārtējo reizi palielinātu nodokļus (sociālās iemaksas, videi draudzīgs autotransports utt. Varbūt arī būs nodoklis “Par neko”. Tikko Satiksmes ministrijas ierēdņi mēģināja ieviest Latvijā “Kubas automašīnu parka” modeli, kur iedzīvotāji pārvietojas ar 50 gadu vecām automašīnām.

Nav nekāda ekonomiskā pamata celt nodokļu likmes, jo pašreiz kopējais nodokļu un nodevu slogs mazo algu saņēmējiem pārsniedz 70% no ienākumiem. Darba ņēmēju, tiešo nodokļu maksātāju, kas maksā sociālos nodokļus un ģenerē visu nodokļu masu, valstī ir vien 400 tūkstoši! 90% no visiem valsts budžeta nodokļu ieņēmumiem ir  nodrošinājuši tikai 7 tūkstoši  uzņēmumi.

Lai valsts Tautsaimniecība pārietu jaunā ekonomikas attīstības fāzē ir jāveic tikai divi samazinājumi:

Valsts sabiedriskais sektors (2020.gada 2.ceturksnī 283 815 darbavietas) ir jāsamazina līdz vidējam ES līmenim, un šos darbiniekus integrējot privātajā sektorā fiskālais efekts sastādītu ap 2 miljardiem eiro!

Jāsamazina darbaspēka nodokļi līdz ES līmenim, ieviešot Eiropas līmeņa progresīvo nodokļu likmes, (1) atsakoties no diferencētā IIN neapliekama minimuma, nosakot fiksēto neapliekamo minimumu 840 eiro apmēra visiem darba ņēmējiem, ieviest sociālo iemaksu diferencējumu, noteikt Iedzīvotāju ienākuma nodokļa  progresivitātes  likmes no 12% līdz 40%.

Bet Latvijā paliek absurdais nodokļu politikas virziens – tas ir ekonomiskais analfabētisms vai tīša tautsaimniecības sabotāža?

Abbott, Lewis F. Statutory Minimum Wage Controls: A Critical Review of their Effects on Labour Markets, Employment, and Incomes. ISR Publications, Manchester UK, 2nd. edn. 2000. ISBN 978-0-906321-22-5. [1]

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