Thursday, November 26, 2020
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Latvijā strauja ekonomikas samazināšanas -IKP rūk par 10%

2020. gada 2. ceturksnī iekšzemes kopprodukts samazinājies par 9,8%, liecina Centrālās statistikas pārvaldes dati.

IKP samazinājums ražošanas nozarē par 3,8%, pakalpojumu nozarē par 11%, mazumtirdzniecībā kritums 1,6%. Samazinājies arī iekasēto nodokļu apjoms. Salīdzinot ar 2020. gada 1. ceturksni IKP samazinājies par 7,5%.

Centrālās statistikas pārvaldes aptauja liecina, ka 31,5% pakalpojumu sektora respondentu jūlijā nav izjutuši nekādus saimniecisko darbību ierobežojošus faktorus, bet 33,9% respondentu joprojām norādīja, ka Covid-19 izraisītās sekas ir būtisks ierobežojošs faktors to veiksmīgai saimnieciskajai darbībai. Lielāks ir kļuvis to uzņēmumu īpatsvars, kuru darbību būtiski ierobežo nepietiekams pieprasījums (34,5 %). Šis rādītājs ir par 9 procentpunktiem lielāks nekā pagājušā gada jūlijā. Darbaspēka trūkumu kā ierobežojošu faktoru min tikai 5,0 % respondentu.

Latvijas Bankas oficiālās prognozes

Latvijas Banka pārskatījusi Latvijas IKP un inflācijas prognozes. Ņemot vērā aktuālās norises pasaules tautsaimniecībā, t.sk. koronavīrusa Covid-19 ietekmi, Latvijas Banka prognozē, ka Latvijas IKP 2020. gadā samazināsies par 6.5% (2019. gada decembra prognoze – 2.6% kāpums), bet inflācija būs 0.5% (2019. gada decembra prognoze – 2.4%). Turklāt šīs prognozes ir modelētas lielas nenoteiktības apstākļos un var tikt būtiski koriģētas, ja pasaule negūs panākumus Covid-19 izplatīšanās ierobežošanā un gada otrajā pusē neatsāksies ekonomiskā izaugsme. 

Salīdzinājums ar 2009. gada krīzi

Salīdzinājumā prognozēto situāciju ar 2009. gada pasaules krīzi varam redzēt, ka IKP jākrītas par aptuveni 30%, lai mēs sasniegtu zemāko 2009. gada krīzes punktu. Protams viss atkarīgs no cik lielu otro Covid vilni būs izplānojusi Deep State un cik lielā mērā to izdosies realizēt. Kā ziņojām iepriekš, tad vakcīnu krusttēvs Bils Geits par otro vilni runā ar lielu pārliecību, ar smīnu piebilstot, ka to gan mēs pamanīšot. Ja netiks palaists jauns mākslīgs vīruss, tad atliks tikai nodrošināt, lai valdība nepilda noziedzīgas ārvalstu pavēles.

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